Almagro 1–3 Albacete II: Result & Stats

Almagro

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete II

11/10/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 13Estadio Manuel Trujillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almagro30%

×Draw26%

Albacete II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmagroExpected goals in this matchAlbacete II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.42

Almagro

1.13

Albacete II

1.42

Albacete II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 96 away

1.17

creates per match

1.38

1.45

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Almagro

1.17

Albacete II

1.38

allows per match

Almagro

1.45

Albacete II

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par

Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Albacete II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Almagro or draw

56%

Almagro or Albacete II

74%

Draw or Albacete II

70%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+

12%

Albacete II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals

68%

Almagro 2+ goals

31%

Almagro 3+ goals

11%

Albacete II 1+ goals

76%

Albacete II 2+ goals

41%

Albacete II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)

41%

Albacete II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 1.17 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Almagro defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almagro scores more

30%

level

26%

Albacete II scores more

44%

Albacete II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff