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Almaden vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

Almaden
Almaden
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
United PDX
United PDXadvanced
7/19/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsInterbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Almaden50%
×Draw22%
United PDX28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almaden
1.93
United PDX
1.39

Almaden creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

Almaden
2.36
United PDX
1.64

allows per match

Almaden
1.14
United PDX
1.50

finishing

Almaden+0.00on par
United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almaden ↓

United PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Almaden or draw
72%
Almaden or United PDX
78%
Draw or United PDX
50%

Winning margin

Almaden wins by 2+
28%
United PDX wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Almaden 1+ goals
85%
Almaden 2+ goals
57%
Almaden 3+ goals
30%
United PDX 1+ goals
75%
United PDX 2+ goals
40%
United PDX 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Almaden (draw refunded)
64%
United PDX (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almaden at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almaden attack 2.36 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

United PDX attack 1.64 + Almaden defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Almaden scores more
50%
level
22%
United PDX scores more
28%

Almaden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almaden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almaden vs United PDX

United PDX beat Almaden 1-0 in USL League Two on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Interbay Stadium in Seattle, Washington.