Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alloa Athletic vs Stirling Albion — League #183 2026

Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
8/12/2023League #183League #183 · Round 2Indodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alloa Athletic51%
×Draw26%
Stirling Albion23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alloa Athletic
1.53
Stirling Albion
0.93

Alloa Athletic creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alloa Athletic
1.40
Stirling Albion
0.33

allows per match

Alloa Athletic
1.53
Stirling Albion
1.67

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw
77%
Alloa Athletic or Stirling Albion
74%
Draw or Stirling Albion
49%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
26%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
78%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
45%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
20%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
61%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
24%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
69%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.40 + Stirling Albion defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stirling Albion attack 0.33 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more
51%
level
26%
Stirling Albion scores more
23%

Alloa Athletic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alloa Athletic vs Stirling Albion

Stirling Albion beat Alloa Athletic 1-0 in League #183 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Indodrill Stadium in Alloa.