Alloa Athletic 3–2 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Alloa Athletic

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

ST Johnstone

L. Rankin 88', 83'

M. Neill 53'

J. Sanders 90+1'

B. Mbunga Kimpioka 55'

7/23/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Indodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alloa Athletic29%

×Draw24%

ST Johnstone47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.69

Alloa Athletic

1.26

ST Johnstone

1.69

ST Johnstone creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.57

creates per match

1.74

1.64

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

1.57

ST Johnstone

1.74

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

1.64

ST Johnstone

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

ST Johnstone →

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

53%

Alloa Athletic or ST Johnstone

76%

Draw or ST Johnstone

71%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

12%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

72%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

13%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

82%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

50%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

38%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.57 + ST Johnstone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.26

ST Johnstone attack 1.74 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

29%

level

24%

ST Johnstone scores more

47%

ST Johnstone at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Sidibeh← C. Smith

46'

M. Smith← J. McPake

46'

S. Sprangler← S. McClelland

50'

53'

55'

64'

64'

65'

L. Parker← B. Mbunga Kimpioka

81'

L. Donnelly← K. Roberts

83'

L. Rankin↳ C. Waters

84'

M. Kirk← T. Steven

87'

R. Mullen← S. Scougall

88'

L. Rankin

90+1'

J. Sanders↳ C. MacPherson

Alloa

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

81'▲L. Donnelly←▼K. Roberts

87'▲R. Mullen←▼S. Scougall

Alloa Athletic substitutes

9Donnelly22Mullen17Thomson11Nevans1Ogayi5Graham18Sammon20O'Donnell10Cunningham

Manager: C. Levein

46'▲A. Sidibeh←▼C. Smith

46'▲M. Smith←▼J. McPake

46'▲S. Sprangler←▼S. McClelland

65'▲L. Parker←▼B. Mbunga Kimpioka

84'▲M. Kirk←▼T. Steven

ST Johnstone substitutes

16Sidibeh22Smith23Sprangler32Parker27Kirk11Carey46Franczak20Sinclair14Wright