Alloa Athletic 2–1 Livingston: Result & Stats

Alloa Athletic

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Livingston

7/17/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Indodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alloa Athletic25%

×Draw22%

Livingston53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.93

Alloa Athletic

1.25

Livingston

1.93

Livingston creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.57

creates per match

2.22

1.64

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

1.57

Livingston

2.22

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

1.64

Livingston

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

47%

Alloa Athletic or Livingston

78%

Draw or Livingston

75%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

10%

Livingston wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Livingston 1+ goals

85%

Livingston 2+ goals

57%

Livingston 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

32%

Livingston (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Livingston away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.57 + Livingston defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Livingston attack 2.22 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

25%

level

22%

Livingston scores more

53%

Livingston at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff