Alloa Athletic 0–0 Heart Of Midlothian

Alloa Athletic

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Heart Of Midlothian

11/28/2020

League Cup · 2nd RoundIndodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alloa Athletic27%

×Draw23%

Heart Of Midlothian50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.78

Alloa Athletic

1.25

Heart Of Midlothian

1.78

Heart Of Midlothian creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.57

creates per match

1.93

1.64

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

1.57

Heart Of Midlothian

1.93

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

1.64

Heart Of Midlothian

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

50%

Alloa Athletic or Heart Of Midlothian

77%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

73%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

11%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

83%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

53%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

35%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.57 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.93 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

27%

level

23%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

50%

Heart Of Midlothian at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff