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Alloa Athletic vs Civil Service Strollers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
Trialist 83', 14'
L. Donnelly 58'
L. Rankin 46', 20'
6/23/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alloa Athletic74%
×Draw16%
Civil Service Strollers11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alloa Athletic
2.58
Civil Service Strollers
0.88

Alloa Athletic creates 193% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Alloa Athletic
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.00

allows per match

Alloa Athletic
0.75
Civil Service Strollers
3.67

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw
89%
Alloa Athletic or Civil Service Strollers
84%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
26%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
52%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
92%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
72%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
47%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
59%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
22%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
87%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.50 + Civil Service Strollers defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.00 + Alloa Athletic defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more
74%
level
16%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
11%

Alloa Athletic at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Trialist
20'
L. Rankin
46'
L. Rankin
58'
L. Donnelly
83'
Trialist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Alloa Athletic 5–0 Civil Service Strollers

Alloa Athletic beat Civil Service Strollers 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 23, 2026.

Goals: Trialist (14', 83'), L. Rankin (20', 46'), L. Donnelly (58').