Alloa Athletic 5–0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Alloa Athletic

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundIndodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alloa Athletic42%

×Draw22%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.67

Alloa Athletic

1.82

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.20

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

2.20

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.33

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

2.00

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

64%

Alloa Athletic or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

78%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

58%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

84%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

54%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

27%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

81%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

50%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

54%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 2.20 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.82

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.33 + Alloa Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

42%

level

22%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

36%

Alloa Athletic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff