Alloa Athletic 1–2 Ayr Utd: Result & Stats

Alloa Athletic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ayr Utd

S. Taggart 76'

C. Moore 90+1'

M. Moffat 4'

11/25/2017

League #183 · Round 14Indodrill Stadium (Alloa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alloa Athletic16%

×Draw19%

Ayr Utd64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchAyr Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.25

Alloa Athletic

1.04

Ayr Utd

2.25

Ayr Utd creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

1.52

creates per match

2.86

1.64

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

1.52

Ayr Utd

2.86

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

1.64

Ayr Utd

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Ayr Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

36%

Alloa Athletic or Ayr Utd

81%

Draw or Ayr Utd

84%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

6%

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

65%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

28%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

9%

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

89%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

65%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

20%

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.86, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.52 + Ayr Utd defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ayr Utd attack 2.86 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

16%

level

19%

Ayr Utd scores more

64%

Ayr Utd at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Moffat

12'

C. McGuffie← A. Geggan

14'

C. Moore← R. Crawford

74'

K. Renton← G. Fleming

76'

S. Taggart

83'

A. Cook← P. Crossan

83'

A. Forrest← D. McDaid

90+1'

C. Moore

Alloa

Ayr

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Goodwin

74'▲K. Renton←▼G. Fleming

83'▲A. Cook←▼P. Crossan

Alloa Athletic substitutes

RentonCookMartinWilsonMonaghanGoodwinHoggan

Manager: I. McCall

12'▲C. McGuffie←▼A. Geggan

14'▲C. Moore←▼R. Crawford

83'▲A. Forrest←▼D. McDaid

Ayr Utd substitutes

McGuffieMooreForrestGilmourWaiteAvciFaulds

Match Recap: Alloa Athletic vs Ayr Utd

Ayr Utd beat Alloa Athletic 2-1 in League #183 on November 25, 2017.

Goals: M. Moffat (4'), S. Taggart (76'), C. Moore (90+1').

The match was played at Indodrill Stadium (Alloa).

Alloa Athletic vs Ayr Utd — League #183 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alloa Athletic vs Ayr Utd