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Alliance vs Lipuli — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Alliance
Alliance
FT
2 – 0
Lipuli
Lipuli
7/9/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alliance49%
×Draw26%
Lipuli25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alliance
1.50
Lipuli
1.00

Alliance creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alliance
1.26
Lipuli
0.63

allows per match

Alliance
1.37
Lipuli
1.74

finishing

Alliance+0.00on par
Lipuli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance ↓

Lipuli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alliance or draw
75%
Alliance or Lipuli
74%
Draw or Lipuli
51%

Winning margin

Alliance wins by 2+
25%
Lipuli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alliance 1+ goals
78%
Alliance 2+ goals
44%
Alliance 3+ goals
19%
Lipuli 1+ goals
63%
Lipuli 2+ goals
26%
Lipuli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alliance (draw refunded)
66%
Lipuli (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alliance at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Lipuli away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alliance attack 1.26 + Lipuli defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lipuli attack 0.63 + Alliance defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alliance scores more
49%
level
26%
Lipuli scores more
25%

Alliance at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alliance vs Lipuli

Alliance beat Lipuli 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on July 9, 2020.