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Alliance Aischdall vs Feulen — Cup 2020

Alliance Aischdall
Alliance Aischdall
FT
5 – 4
Feulen
Feulen
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade Koericherberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alliance Aischdall32%
×Draw18%
Feulen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alliance Aischdall
2.27
Feulen
2.85

Feulen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Alliance Aischdall
2.75
Feulen
3.20

allows per match

Alliance Aischdall
2.50
Feulen
1.80

finishing

Alliance Aischdall+0.00on par
Feulen+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance Aischdall ↓

Feulen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Alliance Aischdall or draw
50%
Alliance Aischdall or Feulen
82%
Draw or Feulen
68%

Winning margin

Alliance Aischdall wins by 2+
17%
Feulen wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Alliance Aischdall 1+ goals
90%
Alliance Aischdall 2+ goals
66%
Alliance Aischdall 3+ goals
39%
Feulen 1+ goals
94%
Feulen 2+ goals
77%
Feulen 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Alliance Aischdall (draw refunded)
39%
Feulen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alliance Aischdall at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Feulen away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alliance Aischdall attack 2.75 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.27

Feulen attack 3.20 + Alliance Aischdall defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alliance Aischdall scores more
32%
level
18%
Feulen scores more
50%

Feulen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Feulen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alliance Aischdall vs Feulen

Alliance Aischdall beat Feulen 5-4 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Koericherberg in Hobscheid.