Alliance Aischdall 3–0 Ehlerange: Result & Stats

Alliance Aischdall

3 – 0

Ehlerange

9/6/2023

Cup · Preliminary RoundStade Koericherberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alliance Aischdall69%

×Draw14%

Ehlerange16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alliance AischdallExpected goals in this matchEhlerange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.75

1.88

Alliance Aischdall

3.75

Ehlerange

1.88

Alliance Aischdall creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

1.25

2.50

allows per match

4.75

creates per match

Alliance Aischdall

2.75

Ehlerange

1.25

allows per match

Alliance Aischdall

2.50

Ehlerange

4.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alliance Aischdall+0.00on par

Ehlerange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance Aischdall ↓

Ehlerange →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Alliance Aischdall or draw

84%

Alliance Aischdall or Ehlerange

86%

Draw or Ehlerange

31%

Winning margin

Alliance Aischdall wins by 2+

51%

Ehlerange wins by 2+

Team goals

Alliance Aischdall 1+ goals

97%

Alliance Aischdall 2+ goals

88%

Alliance Aischdall 3+ goals

70%

Ehlerange 1+ goals

85%

Ehlerange 2+ goals

56%

Ehlerange 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Alliance Aischdall (draw refunded)

81%

Ehlerange (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alliance Aischdall at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Ehlerange away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alliance Aischdall attack 2.75 + Ehlerange defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.75

Ehlerange attack 1.25 + Alliance Aischdall defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Alliance Aischdall scores more

69%

level

14%

Ehlerange scores more

16%

Alliance Aischdall at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alliance Aischdall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff