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Alliance Aischdall vs Atert Bissen — Cup 2020

Alliance Aischdall
Alliance Aischdall
FT
1 – 3
Atert Bissen
Atert Bissen
10/2/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Koericherberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alliance Aischdall29%
×Draw18%
Atert Bissen53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alliance Aischdall
2.16
Atert Bissen
2.90

Atert Bissen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Alliance Aischdall
2.75
Atert Bissen
3.29

allows per match

Alliance Aischdall
2.50
Atert Bissen
1.57

finishing

Alliance Aischdall+0.00on par
Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance Aischdall ↓

Atert Bissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Alliance Aischdall or draw
47%
Alliance Aischdall or Atert Bissen
82%
Draw or Atert Bissen
71%

Winning margin

Alliance Aischdall wins by 2+
15%
Atert Bissen wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Alliance Aischdall 1+ goals
88%
Alliance Aischdall 2+ goals
63%
Alliance Aischdall 3+ goals
36%
Atert Bissen 1+ goals
94%
Atert Bissen 2+ goals
78%
Atert Bissen 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Alliance Aischdall (draw refunded)
35%
Atert Bissen (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alliance Aischdall at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Atert Bissen away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alliance Aischdall attack 2.75 + Atert Bissen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.16

Atert Bissen attack 3.29 + Alliance Aischdall defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alliance Aischdall scores more
29%
level
18%
Atert Bissen scores more
53%

Atert Bissen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atert Bissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alliance Aischdall vs Atert Bissen

Atert Bissen beat Alliance Aischdall 3-1 in Cup on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Koericherberg in Hobscheid.