Alliance Aischdall 2–3 Alisontia Steinsel

Alliance Aischdall

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Alisontia Steinsel

10/5/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Koericherberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alliance Aischdall29%

×Draw19%

Alisontia Steinsel52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alliance AischdallExpected goals in this matchAlisontia Steinsel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.69

Alliance Aischdall

2.00

Alisontia Steinsel

2.69

Alisontia Steinsel creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

2.75

creates per match

2.88

2.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Alliance Aischdall

2.75

Alisontia Steinsel

2.88

allows per match

Alliance Aischdall

2.50

Alisontia Steinsel

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alliance Aischdall+0.00on par

Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance Aischdall ↓

Alisontia Steinsel →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Alliance Aischdall or draw

48%

Alliance Aischdall or Alisontia Steinsel

81%

Draw or Alisontia Steinsel

71%

Winning margin

Alliance Aischdall wins by 2+

15%

Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Alliance Aischdall 1+ goals

86%

Alliance Aischdall 2+ goals

59%

Alliance Aischdall 3+ goals

32%

Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals

93%

Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals

74%

Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Alliance Aischdall (draw refunded)

36%

Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alliance Aischdall at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Alisontia Steinsel away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alliance Aischdall attack 2.75 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.88 + Alliance Aischdall defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alliance Aischdall scores more

29%

level

19%

Alisontia Steinsel scores more

52%

Alisontia Steinsel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alisontia Steinsel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff