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Allerheiligen vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
CANC
00:00
Wels
Wels
4/10/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 22Sportanlage Allerheiligen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Allerheiligen59%
×Draw19%
Wels22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Allerheiligen
2.35
Wels
1.37

Allerheiligen creates 72% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 46 away

creates per match

Allerheiligen
1.81
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Allerheiligen
1.65
Wels
2.89

finishing

Allerheiligen+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Allerheiligen ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Allerheiligen or draw
78%
Allerheiligen or Wels
81%
Draw or Wels
41%

Winning margin

Allerheiligen wins by 2+
37%
Wels wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Allerheiligen 1+ goals
90%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
68%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
41%
Wels 1+ goals
75%
Wels 2+ goals
40%
Wels 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
73%
Wels (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Allerheiligen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Allerheiligen attack 1.81 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.35

Wels attack 1.09 + Allerheiligen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Allerheiligen scores more
59%
level
19%
Wels scores more
22%

Allerheiligen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Allerheiligen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Allerheiligen host Wels

April 10, 2020: Allerheiligen take on Wels in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Allerheiligen host Wels at Sportanlage Allerheiligen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.