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Allerheiligen vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
10/20/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 13Sportanlage Allerheiligen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Allerheiligen43%
×Draw23%
ASK Klagenfurt35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Allerheiligen
1.77
ASK Klagenfurt
1.58

Allerheiligen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 25 away

creates per match

Allerheiligen
1.81
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Allerheiligen
1.65
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Allerheiligen+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Allerheiligen ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Allerheiligen or draw
65%
Allerheiligen or ASK Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
57%

Winning margin

Allerheiligen wins by 2+
22%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Allerheiligen 1+ goals
83%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
53%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
26%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
79%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
47%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
55%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Allerheiligen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Allerheiligen attack 1.81 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Allerheiligen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Allerheiligen scores more
43%
level
23%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
35%

Allerheiligen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Allerheiligen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Allerheiligen 3–0 ASK Klagenfurt

Allerheiligen beat ASK Klagenfurt 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Allerheiligen in Allerheiligen bei Wildon.