Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

All Boys vs Patronato — Primera Nacional 2026

All Boys
All Boys
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Patronato
Patronato
8/11/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 26Islas Malvinas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

All Boys50%
×Draw30%
Patronato20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

All Boys
1.22
Patronato
0.66

All Boys creates 85% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 65 away

creates per match

All Boys
1.11
Patronato
0.66

allows per match

All Boys
0.65
Patronato
1.32

finishing

All Boys+0.00on par
Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

All Boys ↓

Patronato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

All Boys or draw
80%
All Boys or Patronato
70%
Draw or Patronato
50%

Winning margin

All Boys wins by 2+
22%
Patronato wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

All Boys 1+ goals
70%
All Boys 2+ goals
34%
All Boys 3+ goals
12%
Patronato 1+ goals
48%
Patronato 2+ goals
14%
Patronato 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

All Boys (draw refunded)
71%
Patronato (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

All Boys at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.65 · 116 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

All Boys attack 1.11 + Patronato defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Patronato attack 0.66 + All Boys defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

All Boys scores more
50%
level
30%
Patronato scores more
20%

All Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "All Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: All Boys 1–0 Patronato

All Boys beat Patronato 1-0 in Primera Nacional on August 11, 2025.

The match was played at Islas Malvinas Stadium in Floresta.