All Boys 1–0 Alvarado: Result & Stats

All Boys

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alvarado

7/13/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 23Estadio Islas Malvinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

All Boys50%

×Draw30%

Alvarado21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

All BoysExpected goals in this matchAlvarado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.70

All Boys

1.26

Alvarado

0.70

All Boys creates 80% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 101 away

1.11

creates per match

0.75

0.65

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

All Boys

1.11

Alvarado

0.75

allows per match

All Boys

0.65

Alvarado

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

All Boys+0.00on par

Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

All Boys ↓

Alvarado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

All Boys or draw

79%

All Boys or Alvarado

70%

Draw or Alvarado

50%

Winning margin

All Boys wins by 2+

23%

Alvarado wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

All Boys 1+ goals

72%

All Boys 2+ goals

36%

All Boys 3+ goals

13%

Alvarado 1+ goals

50%

Alvarado 2+ goals

16%

Alvarado 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

All Boys (draw refunded)

71%

Alvarado (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

All Boys at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.65 · 116 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

All Boys attack 1.11 + Alvarado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Alvarado attack 0.75 + All Boys defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

All Boys scores more

50%

level

30%

Alvarado scores more

21%

All Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "All Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff