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Barnet vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Barnet
Barnet
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/9/2013League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Underhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barnet38%
×Draw26%
Port Vale36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.33
Port Vale
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.48
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Barnet
1.15
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
64%
Barnet or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
62%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
17%
Port Vale wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
74%
Barnet 2+ goals
38%
Barnet 3+ goals
15%
Port Vale 1+ goals
72%
Port Vale 2+ goals
37%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
52%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.48 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Barnet defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barnet scores more
38%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
36%

Barnet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Barnet vs Port Vale

Barnet and Port Vale drew 0-0 in League Two on February 9, 2013.

The match was played at Underhill Stadium.