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Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
1/10/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 11Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aljustrelense14%
×Draw19%
Vitoria Setubal67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aljustrelense
0.90
Vitoria Setubal
2.20

Vitoria Setubal creates 144% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aljustrelense
0.80
Vitoria Setubal
2.70

allows per match

Aljustrelense
1.70
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

finishing

Aljustrelense+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aljustrelense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aljustrelense or draw
33%
Aljustrelense or Vitoria Setubal
81%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
86%

Winning margin

Aljustrelense wins by 2+
4%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Aljustrelense 1+ goals
59%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
23%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
6%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
89%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
64%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
18%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aljustrelense at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 2.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aljustrelense attack 0.80 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.70 + Aljustrelense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Aljustrelense scores more
14%
level
19%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
67%

Vitoria Setubal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aljustrelense vs Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Aljustrelense 5-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel in Aljustrel.