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Aljustrelense vs Pinhalnovense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
2/25/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 16Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aljustrelense34%
×Draw25%
Pinhalnovense41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aljustrelense
1.40
Pinhalnovense
1.55

Pinhalnovense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aljustrelense
0.80
Pinhalnovense
1.40

allows per match

Aljustrelense
1.70
Pinhalnovense
2.00

finishing

Aljustrelense+0.00on par
Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aljustrelense ↓

Pinhalnovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aljustrelense or draw
59%
Aljustrelense or Pinhalnovense
75%
Draw or Pinhalnovense
66%

Winning margin

Aljustrelense wins by 2+
16%
Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aljustrelense 1+ goals
75%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
41%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
17%
Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
79%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
46%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
46%
Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aljustrelense at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aljustrelense attack 0.80 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pinhalnovense attack 1.40 + Aljustrelense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aljustrelense scores more
34%
level
25%
Pinhalnovense scores more
41%

Pinhalnovense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pinhalnovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aljustrelense vs Pinhalnovense

Pinhalnovense beat Aljustrelense 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on February 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel in Aljustrel.