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Aljustrelense vs Lusitano GC Évora — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
11/8/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 6Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aljustrelense27%
×Draw28%
Lusitano GC Évora45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aljustrelense
0.95
Lusitano GC Évora
1.30

Lusitano GC Évora creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aljustrelense
0.80
Lusitano GC Évora
0.90

allows per match

Aljustrelense
1.70
Lusitano GC Évora
1.10

finishing

Aljustrelense+0.00on par
Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aljustrelense ↓

Lusitano GC Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aljustrelense or draw
55%
Aljustrelense or Lusitano GC Évora
72%
Draw or Lusitano GC Évora
73%

Winning margin

Aljustrelense wins by 2+
10%
Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aljustrelense 1+ goals
61%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
25%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
7%
Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
73%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
37%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
38%
Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aljustrelense at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Lusitano GC Évora away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aljustrelense attack 0.80 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Lusitano GC Évora attack 0.90 + Aljustrelense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aljustrelense scores more
27%
level
28%
Lusitano GC Évora scores more
45%

Lusitano GC Évora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lusitano GC Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aljustrelense vs Lusitano GC Évora

Lusitano GC Évora beat Aljustrelense 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel in Aljustrel.