Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alittihad Misurata vs Al Shomooa SC — Premier League 2019

Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Shomooa SC
Al Shomooa SC
1/23/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alittihad Misurata40%
×Draw27%
Al Shomooa SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alittihad Misurata
1.32
Al Shomooa SC
1.19

Alittihad Misurata creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 8 away

creates per match

Alittihad Misurata
1.15
Al Shomooa SC
1.63

allows per match

Alittihad Misurata
0.76
Al Shomooa SC
1.50

finishing

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par
Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alittihad Misurata ↓

Al Shomooa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alittihad Misurata or draw
67%
Alittihad Misurata or Al Shomooa SC
73%
Draw or Al Shomooa SC
60%

Winning margin

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
18%
Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
73%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
38%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
15%
Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals
70%
Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals
33%
Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
54%
Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alittihad Misurata at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Al Shomooa SC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alittihad Misurata attack 1.15 + Al Shomooa SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.63 + Alittihad Misurata defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alittihad Misurata scores more
40%
level
27%
Al Shomooa SC scores more
33%

Alittihad Misurata at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alittihad Misurata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alittihad Misurata vs Al Shomooa SC

Alittihad Misurata beat Al Shomooa SC 1-0 in Premier League on January 23, 2026.