Alisontia Steinsel 1–3 Progres Niederkorn

Alisontia Steinsel

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Progres Niederkorn

4/3/2024

Cup · Round of 16Stade Henri Bausch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alisontia Steinsel14%

×Draw14%

Progres Niederkorn73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alisontia SteinselExpected goals in this matchProgres Niederkorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

3.44

Alisontia Steinsel

1.50

Progres Niederkorn

3.44

Progres Niederkorn creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

4.13

2.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Alisontia Steinsel

2.00

Progres Niederkorn

4.13

allows per match

Alisontia Steinsel

2.75

Progres Niederkorn

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alisontia Steinsel ↓

Progres Niederkorn →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Alisontia Steinsel or draw

27%

Alisontia Steinsel or Progres Niederkorn

86%

Draw or Progres Niederkorn

86%

Winning margin

Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals

78%

Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals

44%

Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals

19%

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

97%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

85%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)

16%

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alisontia Steinsel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.00 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Alisontia Steinsel scores more

14%

level

14%

Progres Niederkorn scores more

73%

Progres Niederkorn at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff