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Alisontia Steinsel vs F91 Dudelange — Cup 2020

Alisontia Steinsel
Alisontia Steinsel
CANC
00:00
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
3/7/2021CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alisontia Steinsel15%
×Draw15%
F91 Dudelange70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alisontia Steinsel
1.60
F91 Dudelange
3.38

F91 Dudelange creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Alisontia Steinsel
2.00
F91 Dudelange
4.00

allows per match

Alisontia Steinsel
2.75
F91 Dudelange
1.20

finishing

Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alisontia Steinsel ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Alisontia Steinsel or draw
30%
Alisontia Steinsel or F91 Dudelange
85%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
85%

Winning margin

Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+
7%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals
80%
Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals
47%
Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals
22%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
96%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
84%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)
18%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alisontia Steinsel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Alisontia Steinsel scores more
15%
level
15%
F91 Dudelange scores more
70%

F91 Dudelange at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alisontia Steinsel host F91 Dudelange

March 7, 2021: Alisontia Steinsel take on F91 Dudelange in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.