Alisontia Steinsel 5–1 Etzella Ettelbruck

Alisontia Steinsel

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Etzella Ettelbruck

10/29/2023

Cup · Round of 32Stade Henri Bausch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alisontia Steinsel20%

×Draw17%

Etzella Ettelbruck63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alisontia SteinselExpected goals in this matchEtzella Ettelbruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

3.04

Alisontia Steinsel

1.72

Etzella Ettelbruck

3.04

Etzella Ettelbruck creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

3.33

2.75

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Alisontia Steinsel

2.00

Etzella Ettelbruck

3.33

allows per match

Alisontia Steinsel

2.75

Etzella Ettelbruck

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alisontia Steinsel ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Alisontia Steinsel or draw

37%

Alisontia Steinsel or Etzella Ettelbruck

83%

Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck

80%

Winning margin

Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals

82%

Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals

51%

Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals

25%

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals

95%

Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals

80%

Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)

24%

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alisontia Steinsel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.00 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 3.33 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alisontia Steinsel scores more

20%

level

17%

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more

63%

Etzella Ettelbruck at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Etzella Ettelbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff