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Alingsås W vs Bollstanäs W — Elitettan 2021

Alingsås W
Alingsås W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bollstanäs W
Bollstanäs W
10/14/2023ElitettanElitettan · Round 23Mjörnvallen Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Alingsås W59%
×Draw21%
Bollstanäs W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alingsås W
2.02
Bollstanäs W
1.06

Alingsås W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

creates per match

Alingsås W
1.84
Bollstanäs W
1.21

allows per match

Alingsås W
0.91
Bollstanäs W
2.21

finishing

Alingsås W+0.00on par
Bollstanäs W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alingsås W ↓

Bollstanäs W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alingsås W or draw
81%
Alingsås W or Bollstanäs W
79%
Draw or Bollstanäs W
41%

Winning margin

Alingsås W wins by 2+
36%
Bollstanäs W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alingsås W 1+ goals
87%
Alingsås W 2+ goals
60%
Alingsås W 3+ goals
33%
Bollstanäs W 1+ goals
65%
Bollstanäs W 2+ goals
29%
Bollstanäs W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alingsås W (draw refunded)
75%
Bollstanäs W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alingsås W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Bollstanäs W away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.21 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alingsås W attack 1.84 + Bollstanäs W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bollstanäs W attack 1.21 + Alingsås W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alingsås W scores more
59%
level
21%
Bollstanäs W scores more
19%

Alingsås W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alingsås W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alingsås W vs Bollstanäs W

Alingsås W and Bollstanäs W drew 0-0 in Elitettan on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Mjörnvallen Idrottsplats in Alingsås.