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Alingsås W vs Bergdalens W — Elitettan 2021

Alingsås W
Alingsås W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bergdalens W
Bergdalens W
4/19/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 3Gerdskenvallen A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alingsås W60%
×Draw21%
Bergdalens W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alingsås W
2.00
Bergdalens W
1.03

Alingsås W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alingsås W
1.84
Bergdalens W
1.15

allows per match

Alingsås W
0.91
Bergdalens W
2.15

finishing

Alingsås W+0.00on par
Bergdalens W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alingsås W ↓

Bergdalens W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alingsås W or draw
81%
Alingsås W or Bergdalens W
79%
Draw or Bergdalens W
40%

Winning margin

Alingsås W wins by 2+
36%
Bergdalens W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alingsås W 1+ goals
86%
Alingsås W 2+ goals
59%
Alingsås W 3+ goals
32%
Bergdalens W 1+ goals
64%
Bergdalens W 2+ goals
28%
Bergdalens W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alingsås W (draw refunded)
76%
Bergdalens W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alingsås W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Bergdalens W away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alingsås W attack 1.84 + Bergdalens W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bergdalens W attack 1.15 + Alingsås W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alingsås W scores more
60%
level
21%
Bergdalens W scores more
19%

Alingsås W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alingsås W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alingsås W vs Bergdalens W

Alingsås W beat Bergdalens W 1-0 in Elitettan on April 19, 2022.

The match was played at Gerdskenvallen A-plan in Alingsås.