Alianza W 1–3 Once Caldas W: Result & Stats

Alianza W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Once Caldas W

4/12/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 7Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alianza W46%

×Draw28%

Once Caldas W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza WExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.91

Alianza W

1.31

Once Caldas W

0.91

Alianza W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.11

creates per match

0.43

1.39

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Alianza W

1.11

Once Caldas W

0.43

allows per match

Alianza W

1.39

Once Caldas W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza W+0.00on par

Once Caldas W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza W ↓

Once Caldas W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza W or draw

74%

Alianza W or Once Caldas W

72%

Draw or Once Caldas W

54%

Winning margin

Alianza W wins by 2+

21%

Once Caldas W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza W 1+ goals

73%

Alianza W 2+ goals

38%

Alianza W 3+ goals

14%

Once Caldas W 1+ goals

60%

Once Caldas W 2+ goals

23%

Once Caldas W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza W (draw refunded)

64%

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Once Caldas W away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza W attack 1.11 + Once Caldas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Once Caldas W attack 0.43 + Alianza W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alianza W scores more

46%

level

28%

Once Caldas W scores more

26%

Alianza W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alianza W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Alianza W 1–3 Once Caldas W

Once Caldas W beat Alianza W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.

Alianza W vs Once Caldas W — Liga Femenina 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga Femenina: Alianza W 1–3 Once Caldas W