Alianza W 0–0 Junior W: Result & Stats

Alianza W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior W

4/6/2024

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Alianza W43%

×Draw27%

Junior W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza WExpected goals in this matchJunior W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.09

Alianza W

1.37

Junior W

1.09

Alianza W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 43 away

1.11

creates per match

0.79

1.39

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alianza W

1.11

Junior W

0.79

allows per match

Alianza W

1.39

Junior W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza W+0.00on par

Junior W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza W ↓

Junior W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza W or draw

70%

Alianza W or Junior W

73%

Draw or Junior W

57%

Winning margin

Alianza W wins by 2+

20%

Junior W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza W 1+ goals

75%

Alianza W 2+ goals

40%

Alianza W 3+ goals

16%

Junior W 1+ goals

66%

Junior W 2+ goals

30%

Junior W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza W (draw refunded)

59%

Junior W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Junior W away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza W attack 1.11 + Junior W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Junior W attack 0.79 + Alianza W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alianza W scores more

43%

level

27%

Junior W scores more

30%

Alianza W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alianza W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff