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Alianza W vs Internacional Palmira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Alianza W
Alianza W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
5/20/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 12Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Alianza W40%
×Draw28%
Internacional Palmira W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza W
1.25
Internacional Palmira W
1.07

Alianza W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alianza W
1.11
Internacional Palmira W
0.76

allows per match

Alianza W
1.39
Internacional Palmira W
1.40

finishing

Alianza W+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza W ↓

Internacional Palmira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza W or draw
68%
Alianza W or Internacional Palmira W
72%
Draw or Internacional Palmira W
60%

Winning margin

Alianza W wins by 2+
18%
Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alianza W 1+ goals
71%
Alianza W 2+ goals
36%
Alianza W 3+ goals
13%
Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
66%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
29%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alianza W (draw refunded)
56%
Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Internacional Palmira W away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza W attack 1.11 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Internacional Palmira W attack 0.76 + Alianza W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alianza W scores more
40%
level
28%
Internacional Palmira W scores more
32%

Alianza W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza W vs Internacional Palmira W

Alianza W beat Internacional Palmira W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo in Yumbo.