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Alianza W vs Independiente Medellín W — Liga Femenina 2020

Alianza W
Alianza W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín Wadvanced
7/7/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 6Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Alianza W35%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellín W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza W
1.21
Independiente Medellín W
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 56 away

creates per match

Alianza W
1.11
Independiente Medellín W
1.11

allows per match

Alianza W
1.39
Independiente Medellín W
1.30

finishing

Alianza W+0.00on par
Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza W or draw
63%
Alianza W or Independiente Medellín W
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellín W
65%

Winning margin

Alianza W wins by 2+
15%
Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alianza W 1+ goals
70%
Alianza W 2+ goals
34%
Alianza W 3+ goals
12%
Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
71%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alianza W (draw refunded)
49%
Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza W attack 1.11 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Alianza W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alianza W scores more
35%
level
27%
Independiente Medellín W scores more
37%

Independiente Medellín W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza W vs Independiente Medellín W

Independiente Medellín W beat Alianza W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo in Yumbo.