Alianza 0–1 Independiente: Result & Stats

Alianza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente

F. Ogangan 57'

2/2/2020

Primera Division · Clausura - 4Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alianza54%

×Draw26%

Independiente20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlianzaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.81

Alianza

1.50

Independiente

0.81

Alianza creates 85% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

0.82

0.80

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Alianza

1.83

Independiente

0.82

allows per match

Alianza

0.80

Independiente

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alianza or draw

80%

Alianza or Independiente

74%

Draw or Independiente

46%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+

28%

Independiente wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals

78%

Alianza 2+ goals

44%

Alianza 3+ goals

19%

Independiente 1+ goals

56%

Independiente 2+ goals

19%

Independiente 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)

73%

Independiente (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + Independiente defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Independiente attack 0.82 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alianza scores more

54%

level

26%

Independiente scores more

20%

Alianza at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

O. Blanco← I. Portillo

57'

F. Ogangan

63'

M. Jacobo← H. Romero

66'

R. Burgos← F. Ogangan

67'

J. Peña← Ó. Cerén

80'

L. Canales← M. Alfaro

90+1'

E. Rodríguez← Ever Flores

Alianza

Independiente

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Gutiérrez

46'▲O. Blanco←▼I. Portillo

63'▲M. Jacobo←▼H. Romero

67'▲J. Peña←▼Ó. Cerén

Alianza substitutes

BlancoJacoboPeña

Manager: D. Sevilla

66'▲R. Burgos←▼F. Ogangan

80'▲L. Canales←▼M. Alfaro

90+1'▲E. Rodríguez←▼Ever Flores

Independiente substitutes

BurgosCanalesRodríguez