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Alianza vs Firpo — Primera Division 2019

Alianza
Alianza
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Firpo
Firpo
7/27/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 3Estadio Nacional Jorge Mágico González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Alianza46%
×Draw25%
Firpo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza
1.58
Firpo
1.19

Alianza creates 33% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 133 away

creates per match

Alianza
1.83
Firpo
1.58

allows per match

Alianza
0.80
Firpo
1.33

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par
Firpo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

Firpo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alianza or draw
71%
Alianza or Firpo
75%
Draw or Firpo
54%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+
24%
Firpo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals
79%
Alianza 2+ goals
47%
Alianza 3+ goals
21%
Firpo 1+ goals
70%
Firpo 2+ goals
33%
Firpo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)
62%
Firpo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

Firpo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + Firpo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Firpo attack 1.58 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alianza scores more
46%
level
25%
Firpo scores more
29%

Alianza at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Alianza 3–3 Firpo

Alianza and Firpo drew 3-3 in Primera Division on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Jorge Mágico González in San Salvador.