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Alianza vs El Vencedor — Primera Division 2019

Alianza
Alianza
CANC
19:00
El Vencedor
El Vencedor
4/29/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 20Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Alianza45%
×Draw25%
El Vencedor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza
1.57
El Vencedor
1.25

Alianza creates 26% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 16 away

creates per match

Alianza
1.83
El Vencedor
1.69

allows per match

Alianza
0.80
El Vencedor
1.31

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par
El Vencedor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

El Vencedor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alianza or draw
70%
Alianza or El Vencedor
75%
Draw or El Vencedor
55%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+
23%
El Vencedor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals
79%
Alianza 2+ goals
46%
Alianza 3+ goals
21%
El Vencedor 1+ goals
71%
El Vencedor 2+ goals
36%
El Vencedor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)
60%
El Vencedor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

El Vencedor away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + El Vencedor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.57

El Vencedor attack 1.69 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza scores more
45%
level
25%
El Vencedor scores more
30%

Alianza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alianza vs El Vencedor — Match Preview

Alianza face El Vencedor on April 29, 2020 in this Primera Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alianza host El Vencedor at Estadio Cuscatlán.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.