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Alianza Valledupar vs Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2019

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valledupar
Valledupar
Y. Orozco 85'
J. Vásquez 8' (pen)
4/10/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 4Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata (Barrancabermeja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alianza Valledupar67%
×Draw20%
Valledupar13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
2.00
Valledupar
0.72

Alianza Valledupar creates 178% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
2.00
Valledupar
0.50

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.95
Valledupar
2.00

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
87%
Alianza Valledupar or Valledupar
80%
Draw or Valledupar
33%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
42%
Valledupar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
86%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
59%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
32%
Valledupar 1+ goals
51%
Valledupar 2+ goals
16%
Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
84%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 2.00 + Valledupar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Valledupar attack 0.50 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
67%
level
20%
Valledupar scores more
13%

Alianza Valledupar at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. VásquezPenalty
85'
Y. Orozco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Valledupar

Alianza Valledupar beat Valledupar 2-0 in Copa Colombia on April 10, 2019.

Goals: J. Vásquez (8' pen), Y. Orozco (85').

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata (Barrancabermeja).