Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Union Magdalena

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Magdalena

E. Arango 40'

9/22/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Alianza Valledupar51%

×Draw26%

Union Magdalena22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.88

Alianza Valledupar

1.49

Union Magdalena

0.88

Alianza Valledupar creates 69% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 83 away

1.31

creates per match

0.63

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Union Magdalena

0.63

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.13

Union Magdalena

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

78%

Alianza Valledupar or Union Magdalena

74%

Draw or Union Magdalena

49%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

26%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

77%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

44%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

19%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

59%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

22%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

70%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

51%

level

26%

Union Magdalena scores more

22%

Alianza Valledupar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Jérez

Alianza Valledupar · G

8.3

Match Events

4'

6'

9'

15'

40'

41'

52'

52'

53'

61'

L. Arias← F. Cantillo

62'

J. Herrera← J. Vásquez

65'

J. Villota← Lucas Sotero

66'

71'

72'

74'

88'

90'

90+1'

J. Mancilla← Y. Hurtado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaUnion

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots11

5Corners6

18Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target5

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes383

294Accurate Passes323

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls19

6Yellow Cards6

3Offsides0

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Union Magdalena

Alianza Valledupar beat Union Magdalena 1-0 in Primera A on September 22, 2019.

Goals: E. Arango (40').

Union Magdalena controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.

Alianza Valledupar vs Union Magdalena — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Union Magdalena