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Alianza Valledupar vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
10/26/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Alianza Valledupar50%
×Draw26%
Patriotas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.47
Patriotas
0.91

Alianza Valledupar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 109 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
77%
Alianza Valledupar or Patriotas
74%
Draw or Patriotas
50%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
25%
Patriotas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
77%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
43%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
18%
Patriotas 1+ goals
60%
Patriotas 2+ goals
23%
Patriotas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
68%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
50%
level
26%
Patriotas scores more
23%

Alianza Valledupar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Patriotas

Alianza Valledupar and Patriotas drew 1-1 in Primera A on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.