Alianza Valledupar 2–1 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Once Caldas

9/26/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Alianza Valledupar41%

×Draw28%

Once Caldas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.07

Alianza Valledupar

1.27

Once Caldas

1.07

Alianza Valledupar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

0.92

1.23

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Once Caldas

0.92

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Once Caldas

1.23

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

69%

Alianza Valledupar or Once Caldas

72%

Draw or Once Caldas

59%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

18%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

72%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

36%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

14%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

66%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

29%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

57%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

41%

level

28%

Once Caldas scores more

31%

Alianza Valledupar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff