Alianza Valledupar vs Leones FC — Primera A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Alianza Valledupar48%
Leones FC25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Valledupar creates 48% more chances
Season form · 166 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Valledupar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches
Leones FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Leones FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42
Leones FC attack 0.79 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Alianza Valledupar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
Águilas Doradas
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
LlanerosAlianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
Union Magdalena
Envigado
Jaguares
CucutaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Alianza Valledupar host Leones FC on Saturday, 10 February 2018 at 23:00. The match is part of the Primera A 2018/2019 season.
Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Leones FC
Alianza Valledupar beat Leones FC 1-0 in Primera A on February 10, 2018.
Goals: D. Barreto (90+3').
Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.