Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Junior: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Junior

11/21/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Alianza Valledupar42%

×Draw26%

Junior31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.17

Alianza Valledupar

1.41

Junior

1.17

Alianza Valledupar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Junior

1.11

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Junior

1.50

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Junior+0.39scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

69%

Alianza Valledupar or Junior

74%

Draw or Junior

58%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

20%

Junior wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

17%

Junior 1+ goals

69%

Junior 2+ goals

33%

Junior 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

58%

Junior (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Junior away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Junior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Junior attack 1.11 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

42%

level

26%

Junior scores more

31%

Alianza Valledupar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff