Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alianza Valledupar vs Cruzeiro — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
5/8/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alianza Valledupar20%
×Draw27%
Cruzeiro53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
0.78
Cruzeiro
1.45

Cruzeiro creates 86% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.75
Cruzeiro
0.90

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
2.00
Cruzeiro
0.80

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
47%
Alianza Valledupar or Cruzeiro
73%
Draw or Cruzeiro
80%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
6%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
54%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
18%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
4%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
77%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
42%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
28%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Cruzeiro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Alianza Valledupar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
20%
level
27%
Cruzeiro scores more
53%

Cruzeiro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Alianza Valledupar 0–3 Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro beat Alianza Valledupar 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.