Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Chico: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chico

A. Castro 29'

10/13/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Valledupar54%

×Draw22%

Chico23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.17

Alianza Valledupar

1.89

Chico

1.17

Alianza Valledupar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Chico

1.11

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Chico

2.46

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

77%

Alianza Valledupar or Chico

78%

Draw or Chico

46%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

31%

Chico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

85%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

56%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

29%

Chico 1+ goals

69%

Chico 2+ goals

33%

Chico 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

70%

Chico (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.89

Chico attack 1.11 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

54%

level

22%

Chico scores more

23%

Alianza Valledupar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Ospina

Alianza Valledupar · D

7.9

Match Events

23'

29'

30'

37'

46'

Ó. Rodas← J. Arboleda

46'

F. Ponce← J. González

58'

D. Barreto← R. Torres

63'

Oscar Rodas

69'

J. Ríos← J. Suárez

76'

J. Vela← N. Tapia

77'

P. Vranjicán← C. Arias

79'

Cristian Florez

87'

Jose Luis Mosquera

90'

Pablo Vranjicán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaChico

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots11

5Corners2

18Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target2

7Off Target6

6Blocked3

13Inside Box5

6Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

387Total Passes338

289Accurate Passes234

75%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2