Alianza Universidad 3–1 San Marcos: Result & Stats

Alianza Universidad

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Marcos

5/18/2024

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Alianza Universidad62%

×Draw21%

San Marcos16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.89

Alianza Universidad

1.96

San Marcos

0.89

Alianza Universidad creates 120% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 22 away

2.09

creates per match

0.82

0.95

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

2.09

San Marcos

0.82

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

0.95

San Marcos

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

San Marcos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

84%

Alianza Universidad or San Marcos

79%

Draw or San Marcos

38%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

38%

San Marcos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

86%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

58%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

31%

San Marcos 1+ goals

59%

San Marcos 2+ goals

22%

San Marcos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

79%

San Marcos (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

62%

level

21%

San Marcos scores more

16%

Alianza Universidad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff