Alianza Universidad 2–0 Juan Aurich: Result & Stats

Alianza Universidad

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juan Aurich

6/18/2023

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alianza Universidad56%

×Draw23%

Juan Aurich22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchJuan Aurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.09

Alianza Universidad

1.88

Juan Aurich

1.09

Alianza Universidad creates 72% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

2.09

creates per match

1.23

0.95

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

2.09

Juan Aurich

1.23

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

0.95

Juan Aurich

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Juan Aurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

78%

Alianza Universidad or Juan Aurich

77%

Draw or Juan Aurich

44%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

32%

Juan Aurich wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

85%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

56%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

29%

Juan Aurich 1+ goals

66%

Juan Aurich 2+ goals

30%

Juan Aurich 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

72%

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

56%

level

23%

Juan Aurich scores more

22%

Alianza Universidad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff