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Alianza Lima W vs Sporting Cristal W — Liga Women 2026

Alianza Lima W
Alianza Lima W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Cristal W
Sporting Cristal W
5/30/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alianza Lima W68%
×Draw17%
Sporting Cristal W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima W
2.52
Sporting Cristal W
1.10

Alianza Lima W creates 129% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima W
3.71
Sporting Cristal W
1.50

allows per match

Alianza Lima W
0.71
Sporting Cristal W
1.33

finishing

Alianza Lima W+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima W ↓

Sporting Cristal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alianza Lima W or draw
85%
Alianza Lima W or Sporting Cristal W
83%
Draw or Sporting Cristal W
32%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima W wins by 2+
46%
Sporting Cristal W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alianza Lima W 1+ goals
92%
Alianza Lima W 2+ goals
71%
Alianza Lima W 3+ goals
45%
Sporting Cristal W 1+ goals
67%
Sporting Cristal W 2+ goals
30%
Sporting Cristal W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)
82%
Sporting Cristal W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Sporting Cristal W away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima W attack 3.71 + Sporting Cristal W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.52

Sporting Cristal W attack 1.50 + Alianza Lima W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Alianza Lima W scores more
68%
level
17%
Sporting Cristal W scores more
15%

Alianza Lima W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alianza Lima W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: Alianza Lima W 1–0 Sporting Cristal W

Alianza Lima W beat Sporting Cristal W 1-0 in Liga Women on May 30, 2026.