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Alianza Lima vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universitario
Universitarioadvanced
11/9/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Championship - FinalEstadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Alianza Lima46%
×Draw27%
Universitario27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.43
Universitario
1.02

Alianza Lima creates 40% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 147 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.83
Universitario
1.26

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.77
Universitario
1.02

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
73%
Alianza Lima or Universitario
73%
Draw or Universitario
54%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
23%
Universitario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
76%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
42%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
17%
Universitario 1+ goals
64%
Universitario 2+ goals
27%
Universitario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
63%
Universitario (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.43

Universitario attack 1.26 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
46%
level
27%
Universitario scores more
27%

Alianza Lima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Lima vs Universitario

Universitario beat Alianza Lima 2-0 in Primera División on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.