Alianza Lima 2–0 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

2 – 0

Once Caldas

1/16/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alianza Lima44%

×Draw30%

Once Caldas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.82

Alianza Lima

1.17

Once Caldas

0.82

Alianza Lima creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.33

Once Caldas

1.14

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.50

Once Caldas

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Once Caldas →

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

74%

Alianza Lima or Once Caldas

70%

Draw or Once Caldas

56%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

19%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

69%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

33%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

11%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

56%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

20%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

63%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.33 + Once Caldas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Once Caldas attack 1.14 + Alianza Lima defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

44%

level

30%

Once Caldas scores more

26%

Alianza Lima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff