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Alianza Lima vs Emelec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
1/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alianza Lima80%
×Draw17%
Emelec4%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
2.00
Emelec
0.25

Alianza Lima creates 700% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.33
Emelec
0.00

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.50
Emelec
2.67

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
96%
Alianza Lima or Emelec
83%
Draw or Emelec
20%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
53%
Emelec wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
86%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
59%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
32%
Emelec 1+ goals
22%
Emelec 2+ goals
3%
Emelec 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
95%
Emelec (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.33 + Emelec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Emelec attack 0.00 + Alianza Lima defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
80%
level
17%
Emelec scores more
4%

Alianza Lima at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Alianza Lima 2–0 Emelec

Alianza Lima beat Emelec 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.