Alianza FC vs Santa Gema FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018
Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 18Estadio Luis Ernesto Cascarita Tapia (Ciudad de Panamá)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Alianza FC55%
Santa Gema FC20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza FC creates 86% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches
Santa Gema FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Santa Gema FC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.58
Santa Gema FC attack 0.67 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Alianza FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alianza FC host Santa Gema FC on Saturday, 10 November 2018 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018/2019 season.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Alianza FC 2–2 Santa Gema FC
Alianza FC and Santa Gema FC drew 2-2 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on November 10, 2018.
The match was played at Estadio Luis Ernesto Cascarita Tapia (Ciudad de Panamá).